In Kenya’s fluid political landscape, DCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua appears to be making a calculated bet—one that leans more toward President William Ruto than the emerging united opposition.
At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive given their recent fallout. But a closer look suggests that Gachagua’s thinking is driven less by emotion and more by cold political arithmetic.
Gachagua understands Ruto as a deal-maker—a pragmatic politician who negotiates based on numbers and leverage. From his perspective, Ruto has already demonstrated a willingness to accommodate him in the past, having elevated him to deputy president without the backing of a strong personal party structure. That experience likely shapes his belief that a better deal is possible now—especially if he returns to the table with something more tangible: a party, elected leaders, and a solid Mt Kenya voting bloc.
This is where his current strategy fits in. By building influence through his party and backing loyal candidates for gubernatorial, parliamentary, and local seats, Gachagua is effectively assembling political capital. The goal is simple—enter future negotiations, whether before or after 2027, with numbers that cannot be ignored.
In contrast, the united opposition presents a different challenge. Unlike Ruto, opposition coalitions are often made up of multiple power centres, each with competing interests. For Gachagua, this creates uncertainty. Without being a presidential contender himself, he risks being sidelined or offered a weaker deal.
There is also the question of political trust. Gachagua may calculate that opposition figures could distance themselves from him by revisiting his impeachment, portraying him as disruptive to government stability. That narrative could be used to justify limiting his influence within their ranks.
Ruto, on the other hand, is less likely to reopen that chapter if a deal serves his political interests. For a leader known to prioritise outcomes over past grievances, the focus would likely be on what Gachagua brings to the table now—not what happened before.
In this light, Gachagua’s approach begins to make sense. It is not about loyalty—it is about leverage. And in Kenyan politics, the side that offers the best deal often wins the alliance.
