Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s camp has reportedly retreated into crisis meetings after fresh internal polls showed the UDA candidate, Leonard Muriuki Muthende, opening a commanding lead in the Mbeere North by-election. According to sources within both camps, UDA’s candidate is currently polling at 45%, while the Democratic Congress Party (DCP) candidate Newton Karish — backed by Gachagua — trails at 36%, sparking visible anxiety within the DCP leadership.
Unlike Gachagua, who has been the sole high-profile figure campaigning for Karish, the UDA candidate has deployed a four-team ground offensive that has drastically changed the race. One team is led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, another by Governor Cecily Mbarire, a third by Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku — the immediate former MP — and a fourth by a large group of MPs and senators drawn from the Mt Kenya region and beyond.
The multi-pronged approach has allowed UDA to cover significantly more ground, mobilise larger crowds, and meet more households daily, creating a momentum shift that has unsettled Gachagua’s strategists. UDA’s strong on-the-ground visibility contrasts sharply with the United Oppositions narrower, personality-driven campaign built almost entirely around Gachagua himself.
The pressure intensified on Sunday after Gachagua led a high-profile opposition rally at ACK Kanyuambora, where he accused the state of deploying intimidation, violence, and cash handouts to tilt the race. He alleged that goons were being ferried to disrupt his events, and that senior government officials were “splurging money in villages” to buy voters. His claims were seen by political observers as signs of escalating frustration within his camp.
“This election is about restoring the dignity of the Embu people,” Gachagua declared, while taking direct aim at CS Ruku and Governor Mbarire for allegedly influencing the constituency unfairly.
But UDA insiders dismiss the allegations, attributing their lead to better organisation, broader leadership support, and Ruku’s popularity as the immediate former MP.
With just days to the November 27 vote, analysts say the widening gap — coupled with UDA’s aggressive field machinery — has thrown Gachagua’s camp into full-blown panic mode, prompting emergency strategy sessions as they scramble to regain lost ground.
